Treasury Yields Fluctuate

Published October 17, 2025

U.S. Treasury yields varied throughout the week as investors digested the Federal Reserve Chair’s recent remarks on the possibility of further interest rate cuts. Yields fell towards the end of the week as the latest Beige Book report pointed to conditions that could support future rate reductions.

On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke at the National Association for Business Economics in Philadelphia. Powell noted that while there has been no official economic data, employment and inflation have been relatively unchanged since the September meeting. Powell’s comments indicated that the Fed will continue to assess whether adjustments its key interest rate are appropriate before the end of the year.

“Holding rates higher presents risks to the job market. Job creation is below trend given the pace of economic growth," said head of investment strategy at Global X, Scott Helfstein. “The Fed is still likely to cut rates in October and December, but investors should be prepared for a range of outcomes as Powell is trying to leave all options open.”

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the holiday-shortened week of October 14 at 4.04% and traded as low as 3.97% on Thursday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.63% and traded as low as 4.58% on Thursday.

With the U.S. government shutdown still in effect, key economic reports including the weekly unemployment claims remain on hold. In the absence of new official data, attention turned to the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, released on Wednesday. The report compiles economic data from across the country to give a clearer picture of market conditions ahead of the Fed’s next policy meeting. The report indicated that U.S. economic activity experienced little change and employment remained largely stable in recent weeks.

“Employment levels were largely stable in recent weeks, and demand for labor was generally muted across Districts and sectors,” noted the Beige Book report. “Employers that reported hiring generally noted improved labor availability, and some favored hiring temporary and part-time workers over offering full-time employment opportunities. Nevertheless, labor supply in the hospitality, agriculture, construction, and manufacturing sectors was reportedly strained in several Districts due to recent changes to immigration policies.”

The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the week of 10/14 at 4.01%, while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.61%.